AI-Based Models for Identifying Underdeveloped Villages in Indonesia's Rural Development
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Harun Al Azies Universitas Dian Nuswantoro
Abstract
This study improves the prediction and classification of underdeveloped villages in Indonesia using Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning. It identifies key factors driving underdevelopment to inform policy interventions that support Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 10 (Reduced Inequality), and SDG 11 (Sustainable Communities). Using data from 75,261 villages based on Indonesia’s Village Development Index (IDM), the Decision Tree model achieved the highest classification accuracy at 99.5%. Analysis of feature importance revealed the Economic Resilience Index (IKE) as the most significant factor, followed by the Ecological Resilience Index (IKL) and the Social Resilience Index (IKS). These results align with the SDGs’ focus on economic, social, and environmental resilience. The research offers a data-driven approach to advancing rural development and guiding effective policy decisions in Indonesia.
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References
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Ayoub Shaikh, Tawseef, Tabasum Rasool, and Faisal Rasheed Lone. 2022. “Towards Leveraging the Role of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence in Precision Agriculture and Smart Farming.” Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 198:107119. doi: 10.1016/J.COMPAG.2022.107119.
Azies, Harun Al, and Gangga Anuraga. 2021. “Classification of Underdeveloped Areas in Indonesia Using the SVM and K-NN Algorithms.” Jurnal ILMU DASAR 22(1):31–38. doi: 10.19184/JID.V22I1.16928.
Al Azies, Harun, and Wise Herowati. 2023. “Unravelling Income Inequality in Indonesia.” Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi 3(2):89–100. doi: 10.23969/JRIE.V3I2.63.
Azies, Harun Al, and Ayu Febriana Dwi Rositawati. 2021. “Mapping of the Reading Literacy Activity Index in East Java Province, Indonesia: An Unsupervised Learning Approach.” Proceedings of The International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics 2021(1):211–23. doi: 10.34123/ICDSOS.V2021I1.128.
Bates, Stephen, Trevor Hastie, and Robert Tibshirani. 2023. “Cross-Validation: What Does It Estimate and How Well Does It Do It?” Https://Doi.Org/10.1080/01621459.2023.2197686. doi: 10.1080/01621459.2023.2197686.
Bhatia, Smita, Wendy Landier, Electra D. Paskett, Katherine B. Peters, Janette K. Merrill, Jonathan Phillips, and Raymond U. Osarogiagbon. 2022. “Rural–Urban Disparities in Cancer Outcomes: Opportunities for Future Research.” JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute 114(7):940–52. doi: 10.1093/JNCI/DJAC030.
Brnabic, Alan, and Lisa M. Hess. 2021. “Systematic Literature Review of Machine Learning Methods Used in the Analysis of Real-World Data for Patient-Provider Decision Making.” BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 21(1):1–19. doi: 10.1186/S12911-021-01403-2/FIGURES/2.
Castro-Arce, Karina, and Frank Vanclay. 2020. “Transformative Social Innovation for Sustainable Rural Development: An Analytical Framework to Assist Community-Based Initiatives.” Journal of Rural Studies 74:45–54. doi: 10.1016/J.JRURSTUD.2019.11.010.
Cattaneo, Andrea, Anjali Adukia, David L. Brown, Luc Christiaensen, David K. Evans, Annie Haakenstad, Theresa McMenomy, Mark Partridge, Sara Vaz, and Daniel J. Weiss. 2022. “Economic and Social Development along the Urban–Rural Continuum: New Opportunities to Inform Policy.” World Development 157:105941. doi: 10.1016/J.WORLDDEV.2022.105941.
Deng, Xinyang, Qi Liu, Yong Deng, and Sankaran Mahadevan. 2016. “An Improved Method to Construct Basic Probability Assignment Based on the Confusion Matrix for Classification Problem.” Information Sciences 340–341:250–61. doi: 10.1016/J.INS.2016.01.033.
Fadila Palisoa, Nur, L. J. Sinay, M. Y. Matdoan, and Luaye Bakarbessy. 2020. “Penerapan Radial Basis Function Neural Network Dalam Pengklasifikasian Daerah Tertinggal Di Indonesia.” Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik 12(1):37–54. doi: 10.34123/JURNALASKS.V12I1.250.
Gikunda, Kinyua. 2024. “Harnessing Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable Agricultural Development in Africa: Opportunities, Challenges, and Impact.”
Hasugian, Paska Marto, Harvei Desmon Hutahaean, Bosker Sinaga, Sriadhi, and Saranom Silaban. 2020. “Villages Status Classification Analysis Involving K-Means Algorithm To Support Kementerian Desa Pembangunan Daerah Tertinggal Dan Transmigrasi Work Programs.” Journal of Physics: Conference Series 1641(1):012058. doi: 10.1088/1742-6596/1641/1/012058.
Indrakumari, R., T. Poongodi, and Soumya Ranjan Jena. 2020. “Heart Disease Prediction Using Exploratory Data Analysis.” Procedia Computer Science 173:130–39. doi: 10.1016/J.PROCS.2020.06.017.
Khair, Nur Khairlida Muhamad, Khai Ern Lee, and Mazlin Mokhtar. 2020. “Sustainable City and Community Empowerment through the Implementation of Community-Based Monitoring: A Conceptual Approach.” Sustainability 2020, Vol. 12, Page 9583 12(22):9583. doi: 10.3390/SU12229583.
Lauwo, Sarah George, John De Clerk Azure, and Trevor Hopper. 2022. “Accountability and Governance in Implementing the Sustainable Development Goals in a Developing Country Context: Evidence from Tanzania.” Accounting, Auditing and Accountability Journal 35(6):1431–61. doi: 10.1108/AAAJ-10-2019-4220/FULL/PDF.
Manickam, Pandiaraj, Siva Ananth Mariappan, Sindhu Monica Murugesan, Shekhar Hansda, Ajeet Kaushik, Ravikumar Shinde, and S. P. Thipperudraswamy. 2022. “Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) Assisted Biomedical Systems for Intelligent Healthcare.” Biosensors 2022, Vol. 12, Page 562 12(8):562. doi: 10.3390/BIOS12080562.
Maulana, Jefry Pranata, and Irhamah Irhamah. 2018. “Klasifikasi Kabupaten Di Provinsi Jawa Timur Berdasarkan Indikator Daerah Tertinggal Dengan Metode Support Vector Machine (SVM) Dan Entropy Based Fuzzy Support Vector Machine (EFSVM).” Inferensi 1(1):9–15. doi: 10.12962/J27213862.V1I1.6715.
Otok, Bambang Widjanarko, Agus Suharsono, Purhadi, Rahmawati Erma Standsyah, and Harun Al Azies. 2022. “Partitional Clustering of Underdeveloped Area Infrastructure with Unsupervised Learning Approach: A Case Study in the Island of Java, Indonesia.” Journal of Regional and City Planning 33(2):177–96. doi: 10.5614/JPWK.2022.33.2.3.
Pakpahan, Roida. 2021. “Analisa Pengaruh Implementasi Artificial Intelligence Dalam Kehidupan Manusia.” JISICOM (Journal of Information System, Informatics and Computing) 5(2):506–13. doi: 10.52362/JISICOM.V5I2.616.
Palisoa, N. F., L. J. Sinay, M. Y. Matdoan, Yudistira Yudistira, and Lusye Bakarbessy. 2023. “PENERAPAN SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE (SVM) UNTUK KLASIFIKASI KABUPATEN TERTINGGAL DI PROVINSI MALUKU.” PARAMETER: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika Dan Terapannya 2(02):79–86. doi: 10.30598/PARAMETERV2I02PP79-86.
Parolin, Zachary, and Emma K. Lee. 2021. “Large Socio-Economic, Geographic and Demographic Disparities Exist in Exposure to School Closures.” Nature Human Behaviour 2021 5:4 5(4):522–28. doi: 10.1038/s41562-021-01087-8.
Pujolar, Georgina, Aida Oliver-Anglès, Ingrid Vargas, and María Luisa Vázquez. 2022. “Changes in Access to Health Services during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Scoping Review.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2022, Vol. 19, Page 1749 19(3):1749. doi: 10.3390/IJERPH19031749.
Putri, Salwa Rizqina, Arie Wahyu Wijayanto, and Setia Pramana. 2023. “Multi-Source Satellite Imagery and Point of Interest Data for Poverty Mapping in East Java, Indonesia: Machine Learning and Deep Learning Approaches.” Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment 29:100889. doi: 10.1016/J.RSASE.2022.100889.
Riggs, Rebecca Anne, Ramadhani Achdiawan, Ani Adiwinata, Agni Klintuni Boedhihartono, Agustinus Kastanya, James Douglas Langston, Hari Priyadi, Manuel Ruiz-Pérez, Jeffrey Sayer, and Albertus Tjiu. 2021. “Governing the Landscape: Potential and Challenges of Integrated Approaches to Landscape Sustainability in Indonesia.” Landscape Ecology 36(8):2409–26. doi: 10.1007/S10980-021-01255-1/METRICS.
Santoso, Joseph Teguh, and M. Kom. 2023. “KECERDASAN BUATAN (Artificial Intelligence).” Penerbit Yayasan Prima Agus Teknik 1–227.
Sari, Esa Anindika, Meilani Thereza Br. Saragih, Ilhamsyah Ali Shariati, Sabiq Sofyan, Rakai Al Baihaqi, and Rani Nooraeni. 2020. “Klasifikasi Kabupaten Tertinggal Di Kawasan Timur Indonesia Dengan Support Vector Machine.” JIKO (Jurnal Informatika Dan Komputer) 3(3):188–95. doi: 10.33387/JIKO.V3I3.2364.
Silalahi, Arina Prima, Harlen Gilbert Simanullang, and Marlyna Infryanty Hutapea. 2023. “SUPERVISED LEARNING METODE K-NEAREST NEIGHBOR UNTUK PREDIKSI DIABETES PADA WANITA.” METHOMIKA: Jurnal Manajemen Informatika & Komputerisasi Akuntansi 7(1):144–49. doi: 10.46880/JMIKA.VOL7NO1.PP144-149.
Utami, Nasiya Alifah, and Arie Wahyu Wijayanto. 2020. “Classification of Village Development Index at Regency/Municipality Level Using Bayesian Network Approach with K-Means Discretization.” Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik 12(3):95–106. doi: 10.34123/JURNALASKS.V14I1.390.
Wibowo, Ari. 2023. “Global Economic Challenges for Indonesia: Equitable Development for Sustainable Prosperity.” Prosiding Seminar Teknologi, Akuntansi, Bisnis, Ekonomi, Dan Komunitas 3:23–40. doi: 10.35912/STABEK.V3I.175.
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